Smart Analysis with Greg McKenna – May 20 2019

Key Takeaway Last week's title of my weekly was "It might be time for markets to take this trade war seriously" and for a day it looked like that might be right. But the mid week recovery which saw the losses in evidence Monday erased and some ephemeral sense of hope feed through markets seemed to me to smack of a real complacency. Bloomberg's…

Read More

Smart Analysis with Greg McKenna – May 13 2019

Key Takeaway Things could have been worse last week. Were it not for President Trump’s clear and effective manipulation of Twitter and markets sentiment the lack of a deal Friday and the imposition of the tariff increase to 25% should have seen stocks and risk asset crater while safe haven plays like bonds and gold went bid. But hope springs eternal and traders clearly…

Read More

Smart Analysis with Greg McKenna – May 6 2019

Key Takeaway Oil fell out of bed - check out the chart below and then the technicals. The Fed was less dovish than expected and then jobs beat by a country mile. But bonds and the USD didn't move higher. That's interesting. Of course bonds flat, a Fed still signalling patience, and decent data is a positive for stocks which caught a bid at…

Read More

Smart Analysis with Greg McKenna – April 27 2019

Key Takeaway US earnings and the 3.2% Q1 GDP print Friday are doing a great job of reinforcing the message I have been belting since last year. The US economy is in better shape than the market had priced and the hand wringing doomsayers are early - which is as bad as being wrong. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not always right, and…

Read More

Smart Analysis with Greg McKenna – April 15 2019

Key Takeaway JP Morgan (and Wells Fargo to a lesser extent) plus some M&A activity saw stocks end the week on a positive note and bonds get hosed as the hated risk rally continued and the S&P 500 closed above the 2,900 region for the first time since late September last year. That US 10's closed at 2.56% and the USD came under pressure…

Read More